Further thoughts on Houston radio ratings
Recently, this blog and the Brazosport News called attention to newly released radio ratings on a public website.
The discussion that ensued prompted KSEV-700's Dan Patrick to post an explanation of those ratings and his programming philosophy on his Lone Star Times website (linked via Google cache because direct link is dead).
He made a number of points, including: 1) KSEV does not attempt to compete 24 hours because of a weak nighttime signal, 2) KSEV competes primarily for the 35-64 demographic, even though many advertisers covet a younger 25-54 demographic, 3) KSEV is highly competitive in those time slots and demographics that it targets, 4a) The person following 800 pound talk radio gorilla Rush Limbaugh on competing station KPRC benefits disproportionately from the strong lead, 4b) When Dan Patrick followed Rush Limbaugh in his days with KPRC, he benefited disproportionately as a result, just as Chris Baker benefited when he was on KPRC; 4c) "I can assure you this," Patrick wrote, "if Rush was in the middle of our day format, the numbers would be dramatically different for everyone."
In the post, Patrick insisted that the 35-64 demographic is most important to his station, but also pointed to December numbers in the 25-54 demographic suggesting his station had surged ahead of the primary competition.
Unfortunately, representatives from KSEV declined my request to share raw Arbitron numbers with us for independent analysis or to post selected raw Arbitron numbers to the Lone Star Times website, making it impossible for interested persons to analyze the data for themselves. However, after quite a bit of poking around and calling in some favors, I have been able to obtain raw Arbitron data for selected demographics and time slots, which I've loaded into Excel spreadsheets and used to compile a number of graphics that show various ratings for KPRC, KTRH, and KSEV. The data entry and subsequent quality control have been tedious and time-consuming. While we believe the data we are presenting is as error-free as possible, we do concede that the human data entry/transcription effort does introduce the possibility for error. It should go without saying (since this is a weblog that takes its reputation and credibility extremely seriously), but we'll say it anyway -- if anyone in possession of raw Arbitron data believes we have made an error in our analysis, please contact us with the specifics so we can correct any errors quickly and transparently. All ratings data that follows is copyright 2005, Arbitron.
We should note that we have concentrated on two main Arbitron ratings variables: AQH Share and Cume. Definitions of AQH, AQH Share, and Cume may be found at the bottom of the post. As we've discovered doing this analysis, there are many different ratings variables that capture different dimensions of station popularity. We're offering no judgment as to which is "best," but merely presenting the data we were able to obtain.
We weren't able to obtain hourly AQH Share numbers for the 35-64 demographic, but we were able to obtain them for the 25-54 demographic, as the following linked charts illustrate. The first chart is compiled from the Fall 2004 Arbitron ratings book; the second chart is compiled from Arbitron's five-book average dating back to Fall 2003. In that demographic, Clear Channel clearly enjoys an advantage on both of its stations across time periods.
In the 35-64 demographic, we were able to obtain Arbitron AQH Share (6-10 am and 3-7 pm time periods) and Cume numbers (6-10 am and 3-7 pm time periods) for Houston radio, and compile those for our talk stations of interest. As morning AQH Share goes, KSEV beats main competitor KPRC in a couple of periods. In the afternoon, KSEV does not fare as well, trailing in every ratings period. The Clear Channel stations lead handily in both time slots for the Cume rating over all the selected ratings periods. In the 25-54 demographic, KSEV was ahead of KPRC in AQH Share for one ratings period in the mornings, but again trailed the competition across every ratings period in the afternoon.
Finally, we were able to obtain historical AQH Share and Cume data for KPRC over a lengthy time series, dating back to when Dan Patrick's afternoon program enjoyed a lead-in from Rush Limbaugh, until more recently, when Chris Baker enjoyed a lead-in from Rush Limbaugh (up until his move to KTRH). The AQH Share time series chart is here, and the Cume time series chart is here. Everybody in radio seems to agree that Rush Limbaugh provides a strong lead in. Readers and radio analysts can draw their own conclusions about the meaning of this time series.
As always, we welcome further discussion of this post in the forum. We continue to believe that with Chris Baker's move to KTRH, Sean Hannity sliding in to follow Limbaugh on KPRC, and the emergence of new talk station KNTH, the Houston talk radio ratings are going to be very interesting to watch over the next few periods. Since we call ourselves media watchers, we're more interested than most. Those who enjoy listening to the talkers should have plenty of choices as well!
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Definitions of Common Arbitron Ratings Terms (via Boston's WBUR, which also posts its ratings on its website -- talk about openness!)
AQH (Persons): Average Quarter-Hour Persons is the estimated average number of persons listening to a station for at least 5 minutes during any quarter hour in a specific time period.
AQH Share: Average Quarter-Hour Persons listening to a station during a specific quarter-hour expressed as a percentage of all persons who listen to radio during the time period.
Cume (Persons): Cume Persons is the estimated number of different persons who listen to a station at least once during a specific period. The cume is sometimes called the "unduplicated audience," "reach" or "circulation."
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 02/13/05 11:19 PM | Print |
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