When TV reporters tackle social-science modelling...
KHOU-11 ran a story on Friday that purported to determine the effect of Katrina refugees on Houston crime:
So we calculated New Orleans' murder rate before Katrina. We then used that to estimate how many more murders there would be among 150,000 new residents, the estimated number of evacuees now living here.
We then compared that to how many murders there'd be using Houston's lower murder rate.
The result: if evacuees were involved in murders at the same rate in Houston as they were back in New Orleans, Houston would register about 80 more murders a year, or about seven more a month.
Using Houston's lower rate, there'd be only about 2 more murders a month.
The reality is that since September, HPD says there have been 26 Katrina-related murders, or about five a month.
In other words, Katrina evacuees seem to be involved in murder at a rate not quite as high as back in New Orleans, but higher than Houston's.
If the murders continue, Houston's overall murder rate would rise.
But will that really happen?
Consider what has happened at Fred Bhandara's complex.
Since the murder there in December, HPD has flooded this area with task force officers.
The complex added its own security patrols and Crime Watch program.
They've had no more murders at the complex.
About all this exercise tells us is that we have seen an increase in violent crime following the influx of Katrina evacuees. It's not unreasonable to ask if a criminal element among the Katrina evacuees is disproportionately responsible for the increase. But it's also important to keep in mind that HPD's manpower shortage was a problem before the influx of Katrina refugees. It may well be that the spike in violent crime is also reflective of that manpower shortage (though perhaps the Katrina influx has exacerbated the problem). A properly specified model would take that into consideration.
Now that the local press is finally reporting on HPD's manpower shortage with some regularity, MayorWhiteChiefHurtt are cognizant of the need to get someone else to pay for them to boost HPD's manpower after several years of indifference:
HPD will be asking Uncle Sam for $40 million to fund 400 new officers.
And crime stats will be used to make it's case: Houston needs help.
More power to MayorWhiteChiefHurtt if they can convince the feds to help us out, but the manpower problem is mostly one of our own politicians' making.
RELATED: New Orleans failures led crime here (Kim Cobb, Houston Chronicle).
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 02/05/06 11:27 AM | Print |
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