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30 January 2006
Rep. DeLay makes the Economist, Hardball
MSNBC ran a segment on the 22nd Congressional District race, including a long interview of Rep. Tom DeLay (R) by Hardball's Chris Matthews earlier tonight.
Video and a partial transcript are available here. In the television version, political scientist and bicyclist Bob Stein made an appearance. He was identified as a Rice University pollster.
The Economist also ran a story on the race in its most recent issue. This is a lowlight:
Another problem for Mr DeLay, assuming that he survives the primary, is Steve Stockman, a former Republican congressman who has entered the race as an independent. Mr Stockman will need 500 votes to get on the ballot in November. He has vowed to go after Mr Lampson, but since his politics are to the right of Mr DeLay's, he may end up pulling support away from him. (According to the Chronicle poll, he could draw 11% of election-day voters.)
We've already established that among several flaws, the Chronicle/Murray/Stein survey almost certainly overstated support for Stockman because of the way he was identified.
Speaking of Professor Richard Murray -- he makes an appearance in the Economist article:
“The best Mr DeLay can hope out of Washington is continuing bad publicity but he's not indicted,” says Richard Murray, a political-science professor at the University of Houston.
They could have at least identified him as one of the people who put together the (flawed) survey they cited.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ DeLay makes the Economist, Hardball"> 01/30/06 10:57 PM | Houston People | Technorati | Comments (4)
15 January 2006
Recent news reflected by new Chron poll on DeLay
The Chronicle released a survey on Rep. Tom DeLay by Richard Murray and Houston's most happening political scientist Bob Stein over the weekend.
One question on the survey seems a bit bizarre, as it appears that Murray and Stein asked ALL respondents (not just those planning to vote in the Republican primary) whom they would be voting for in the Republican primary, thereby making the results on that particular question relatively useless. It's not entirely clear if the newspaper simply misreported the results, or if the veteran pollsters really did employ a strange approach to that question.
Unfortunately, the newspaper chose not to post full (raw) survey results or full crosstabs online, so it is impossible for those who might be interested to look at the work more carefully.
Evan at Delay vs. World has given the reported results a careful look, and also has an email out to pollsters and reporter alike for clarification on some of the numbers. Evan's executive summary (if you will) is as follows:
1. This isn't good for DeLay, although it's not really unexpected. The survey puts DeLay's favorable/unfavorable at 29%/60%, and it shows that many voters who have voted for him are considering other candidates because of his legal situation.
2. Unless DeLay's legal situation deteriorates, this is very likely the nadir of his poll numbers. There's no doubt that after the last few weeks, DeLay's poll numbers would be bad. But is this really the best time to take a poll, if you're attempting to predict the outcome of upcoming elections? No.
3. As far as I can tell, unless the Chronicle or Stein/Murray choose to clarify the primary results, it's very hard to take the primary results seriously.
4. If DeLay wins legally, he'll win re-election. If he loses legally, he won't win re-election.
Evan also notes that KHOU-11 seems to have had some difficulty interpreting the results properly.
There's not much to add to Evan's assessment, which ought to be read in its entirety. After the last few weeks and the accompanying press, it's not surprising that Rep. DeLay's poll numbers have suffered accordingly. It may be exciting for some executive editors to rush a (flawed) poll to the field in those circumstances, but the timing probably isn't so helpful in terms of predicting the outcome of the election. The poll does illustrate that Rep. DeLay's legal situation is central to his re-election chances, but that shouldn't come as news to most people.
UPDATE (01-16-2006): The Chronicle's Dean Betz informs in the comments that Murray/Stein have provided additional crosstabs, which the Chronicle has posted. Thanks to all of them for responding so quickly. Evan at Delay vs. World has some preliminary thoughts on the newly posted information.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ DeLay"> 01/15/06 10:56 PM | Houston People | Technorati | Comments (14)
03 December 2006
Culberson not backing off Richmond rail opposition
In a story that speculates on the impact of the rail issue on the Martha Wong/Ellen Cohen race in November, Rad Sallee also treats the issue of Richmond rail more generally, and the position of Rep. John Culberson, who will become a minority member of the House Appropriations Committee next year:
Culberson is a rail skeptic. Except for his stand against Metro studying rail on Richmond, he has been generally supportive of Metro's rail plans since voters approved a Metro-backed referendum in 2003
As a member of the House Appropriations Committee, his support has been crucial in Metro's effort to obtain federal rail funding. Metro officials say it is too early to tell whether his influence will wane when Democrats gain control of Congress in January, possibly with newly elected Democrat Nick Lampson of Stafford on the Appropriations Committee.
Culberson has often said the views of those who live and work on Richmond itself carry more weight with him than those elsewhere.
He said last week that nothing in the Nov. 7 result gave reason to soften his opposition to the Richmond rail.
"Every election is about personalities and party affiliation and issues. It's about who the district wants to represent them," he said.
Culberson said the only referendum that counts was the 2003 transit referendum that approved the rail plan, and whose ballot said "Westpark."
November postings from a pro-Richmond rail blog that sometimes acts as the adjunct public relations arm for METRO on the topic of Richmond rail suggest that METRO is planning to move ahead on Richmond rail despite Rep. Culberson's opposition and the referendum language. The wild card was whether the election would soften Rep. Culberson's position. The answer would seem to be a resounding No.
UPDATE: I should note that Democratic political scientists Richard Murray and Bicyclist Bob Stein both made an appearance in Sallee's story. It's probably also worth noting that Zogby, rather than Murray/Stein, handled the Chronicle's polling for the last election. Perhaps the Chronicle decided it didn't want another methodological fiasco like the Murray/Stein DeLay polling from earlier this year.
BLOGVERSATION: Perry vs. World, Off the Kuff.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 12/03/06 09:38 PM | Houston Transit | Technorati | Comments (1)
18 January 2006
Flawed Chron/Murray/Stein survey continues to draw attention (updated)
David Benzion posts that Dr. David Hill of Hill Research Consultants was interviewed yesterday by Fox News (national) about the flaws in that poll on Tom DeLay that the Chronicle rushed to the field following a spate of bad press for DeLay.
Benzion shares some of the points made by Dr. Hill in his blog post, and suggests that the interview may get some play on Special Report with Brit Hume today. Hill is a nationally respected pollster from The Woodlands.
Hill's critique comes after Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies criticized elements of the survey and the Chronicle's characterization of the results on Edd Hendee's morning program on KSEV-700 yesterday.
As Chris Elam notes, some of the most useful, detailed criticism in print so far has come from Evan at DeLay vs World (with some further discussion here). Unfortunately, that's off the radar of some bigshot national bloggers. That's okay. We're more than happy to help with your hyperlocal blogging needs.
UPDATE: Benzion posts a sneering response by the Chronicle's main Editorial LiveJournalist, James Howard Gibbons, to a Jack Rains email to the Chronicle editorial page. As we've seen lately, emotions seem to be getting the best of some editors at the Chronicle lately.
UPDATE 2: Dr. Hill was not on the Brit Hume show. I don't know what happened.
Evan at DeLay vs World posts more thoughts on the flaws in the Chron/Murray/Stein survey. And make no mistake -- the combination of the poll's methodology and the subsequent interpretation is deeply flawed.
And the Chronicle reader representative completely ignores legitimate criticism of the survey that has been raised by two pollsters who actually make a living at doing political polling (instead of doing it as a hobby while teaching), as well as several blogs. Instead, the Chronicle reader representative posts DeLay campaign emails as indicative of the criticism of the flawed Chronicle/Murray/Stein survey, and posts a "rebuttal" from a Chronicle political editor that isn't a rebuttal at all (and actually makes the Chronicle look more clueless). That's deceptive.
Murray and Stein need either to admit their survey is flawed, or answer their critics. We're not their undergraduates. They can't just tell us to go away because they are (self-)important people with tenure. Both the Chronicle and these academics owe the critics of this flawed survey an explanation of why they think the critics are wrong, or an admission that the critics have a point.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ Murray/Stein survey continues to draw attention (updated)"> 01/18/06 01:50 PM | Houston Miscellany | Technorati | Comments (5)
23 January 2006
Chron reader rep, pollster defend DeLay poll
The Houston Chronicle and its pollsters continue to stand by a poll and reporting that have come under strong criticism from the local blogosphere. This weekend, Chronicle reader representative James Campbell penned a column in defense of the poll and the reporting, and Lone Star times has posted an email from Professor Murray defending the poll.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ DeLay poll"> 01/23/06 11:59 PM | Houston Miscellany | Technorati | Comments (2)
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